Jeju United FC 1-1 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Jeju United FC welcome Gangwon FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 7 April 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.17 xG and Gangwon FC 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.908 / defence 0.945 | Gangwon FC attack 0.757 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 0.950 / away 1.085. Gangwon FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.356 — this is suppressing Jeju United FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Jeju United FC games / 7 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 43% | Draw 35% | Gangwon FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.33 | Draw 2.86 | Gangwon FC 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Apr 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 43% | Draw 35% | Gangwon FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Jeju United FC 1.17 / Gangwon FC 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.908 / def 0.945 | Gangwon FC attack 0.757 / def 1.356 | league avg home 0.950 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Gangwon FC xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 7 April 2021 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 1 Gangwon FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 43% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 22% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (0.91) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
43%
2.34
35%
2.85
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
1.95
0.78
Gangwon FC xG
2.34
43%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
7%
14.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 11.1 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 0.78 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Pre-Season
Gangwon FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jul 2024, when Gangwon FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Jeju United FC
7
Draws
3
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 0, Gangwon FC have won 3, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.17 xG and Gangwon FC 0.78 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.94 against Gangwon FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.36, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 43% | Draw 35% | Gangwon FC 22%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.