Jeju United FC 1-1 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 25 as Jeju United FC welcome Gangwon FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 August 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC at Jeju World Cup Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Jeju United FC are significantly better at Jeju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gangwon FC stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gangwon FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jeju United FC 0.60 PPG, Gangwon FC 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 60% versus Gangwon FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 60% | Gangwon FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.00 xG and Gangwon FC 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.910 / defence 1.070 | Gangwon FC attack 0.679 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.150. Data: 57 Jeju United FC games / 57 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 37% | Draw 35% | Gangwon FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Gangwon FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Jeju United FC 70% | Gangwon FC 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Aug 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 37% | Draw 35% | Gangwon FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Jeju United FC 1.00 / Gangwon FC 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.910 / def 1.070 | Gangwon FC attack 0.679 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Gangwon FC xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 1 Gangwon FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 37% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Gangwon FC (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (0.91) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
37%
2.68
35%
2.88
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
1.84
0.83
Gangwon FC xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
10%
9.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 0.83 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeju United FC come into this having played 62 games, going 22W 16D 24L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gangwon FC sit at 1.05 PPG from 62 outings (16W 17D 29L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.32 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jeju United FC's home form reads 8W 11D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Gangwon FC have taken 0.97 points per game from 30 outings (7W 8D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.05 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 62 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Blended
Gangwon FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 22W 16D 24L in their last 62 games (1.32 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 16W 17D 29L in their last 62 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.17 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jul 2024, when Gangwon FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Jeju United FC
7
Draws
3
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 0, Gangwon FC have won 3, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 60%, Gangwon FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Jeju United FC) and 40% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC have failed to score in 30% of games; Gangwon FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 47% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 40% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC finished level at 1-1 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.00 xG and Gangwon FC 0.83 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.07 against Gangwon FC attack 0.68 / defence 0.84, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 37% | Draw 35% | Gangwon FC 28%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 60%, Gangwon FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.32 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.