Jeju United FC 2-1 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Jeju United FC welcome FC Seoul to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 05:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jeju United FC's home record at Jeju World Cup Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Seoul have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Jeju United FC) versus 0.90 (FC Seoul). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Jeju United FC, 4 for FC Seoul and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with FC Seoul winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jeju United FC trading profile (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
FC Seoul trading profile (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 47% versus FC Seoul 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 45% | FC Seoul 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 0.77 xG and FC Seoul 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.769 / defence 1.009 | FC Seoul attack 1.296 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.031 / away 1.321. Jeju United FC's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Seoul have an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Jeju United FC games / 45 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 15% | Draw 26% | FC Seoul 59%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 6.67 | Draw 3.85 | FC Seoul 1.69. The model has a clear lean to FC Seoul (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Seoul as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Jeju United FC 50% | FC Seoul 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 15% | Draw 26% | FC Seoul 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG Jeju United FC 0.77 / FC Seoul 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.769 / def 1.009 | FC Seoul attack 1.296 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.031 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.73
FC Seoul xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Jeju United FC 2 - 1 FC Seoul.
Where is Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 15% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 59% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Jeju United FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and FC Seoul?
Record (9 meetings): Jeju United FC 4W | Draws 1 | FC Seoul 4W.
What form are Jeju United FC and FC Seoul in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. FC Seoul (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 0.77x the league average against FC Seoul's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 0-2 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
15%
6.70
26%
3.84
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.49
1.73
FC Seoul xG
6.70
15%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
47%
2.15
Win to Nil
3%
37.69
27%
3.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 14.3 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.73 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 26W 12D 38L from 76 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five.
FC Seoul, meanwhile, have gone 28W 23D 25L across 76 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.18 PPG, FC Seoul on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 17W 5D 15L from 37 games — 1.51 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Seoul's away record stands at 12W 13D 12L across 37 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.38 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 26W 12D 38L in their last 76 games (1.18 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 28W 23D 25L in their last 76 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.51 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or FC Seoul been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, FC Seoul in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeju United FC and FC Seoul runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeju United FC's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jeju United FC
1
Draws
4
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 5, FC Seoul have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Jeju United FC 2-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and FC Seoul?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 40%, FC Seoul 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Jeju United FC) and 40% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC Seoul in 38%; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 27% of games; FC Seoul in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play FC Seoul?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 51% of FC Seoul's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 40% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat FC Seoul 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat FC Seoul 2-1 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 0.77 xG and FC Seoul 1.73 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Jeju United FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.01 against FC Seoul attack 1.30 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 15% | Draw 26% | FC Seoul 59%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Jeju United FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 45%, FC Seoul 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG, FC Seoul 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. FC Seoul (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.