Incheon United 0-1 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Incheon United at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Incheon United face Jeonbuk Motors.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Jeonbuk Motors travel to Sungui Arena Park to take on Incheon United in K League 1 (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 12:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Incheon United have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Incheon United's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Jeonbuk Motors — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Jeonbuk Motors away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Incheon United 0.80 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Incheon United have won 1, Jeonbuk Motors 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Jun 2024, ended Incheon United 2–2 Jeonbuk Motors — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Incheon United in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 49% versus Jeonbuk Motors 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 38% | Jeonbuk Motors 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.38 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.742 / defence 1.148 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.919 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.151. Incheon United's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.38. Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating of 1.289 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Incheon United's projected output up. Data: built from Incheon United's last 60 games and Jeonbuk Motors's last 60.

Result probabilities: Incheon United 41% | Draw 26% | Jeonbuk Motors 33%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.45 | Draw 3.80 | Jeonbuk Motors 3.04. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Incheon United as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Incheon United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Incheon United's last 10 home games and Jeonbuk Motors's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Incheon United 70% (last 10 home games) | Jeonbuk Motors 40% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights