Pohang Steelers 1-2 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pohang Steelers at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Pohang Steelers welcome Daegu FC to Steelyard Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pohang Steelers's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Steelyard Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Daegu FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daegu FC's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pohang Steelers 1.40 PPG, Daegu FC 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Pohang Steelers have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 6 past contests while Daegu FC have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Jul 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Pohang Steelers and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Pohang Steelers in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 63% versus Daegu FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 43% | Daegu FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.35 xG and Daegu FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.915 / defence 0.957 | Daegu FC attack 0.778 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.137. Data: 60 Pohang Steelers games / 60 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 49% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Daegu FC 4.35. Pohang Steelers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pohang Steelers as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Pohang Steelers 60% | Daegu FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 49% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.35 / Daegu FC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.915 / def 0.957 | Daegu FC attack 0.778 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Daegu FC xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 2 Daegu FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 49% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC?
Record (6 meetings): Pohang Steelers 3W | Draws 3 | Daegu FC 0W.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (0.92) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
49%
2.05
28%
3.59
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.20
0.85
Daegu FC xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
6%
16.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.7 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.85 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 65 games, going 28W 24D 13L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Pohang Steelers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Daegu FC sit at 1.23 PPG from 65 outings (19W 23D 23L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pohang Steelers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 17W 11D 4L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Daegu FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 32 outings (8W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pohang Steelers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.06 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pohang Steelers have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Blended
Daegu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 28W 24D 13L in their last 65 games (1.66 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 19W 23D 23L in their last 65 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Daegu FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.94 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pohang Steelers
5
Draws
1
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 4, Daegu FC have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when Daegu FC 0-1 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 59%, Daegu FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Pohang Steelers) and 41% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Daegu FC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Daegu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 47% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 41% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Daegu FC defy the odds to beat Pohang Steelers 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Pohang Steelers 1-2 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.35 xG and Daegu FC 0.85 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Daegu FC outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Daegu FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.02, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 49% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 23%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Daegu FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 43%, Daegu FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pohang Steelers arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Daegu FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.