Incheon United 0-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Incheon United (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Incheon United face Jeju United FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Incheon United and Jeju United FC meet at Sungui Arena Park in K League 1, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Form
Incheon United (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Incheon United have posted 6W 2D 2L at Sungui Arena Park — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Jeju United FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Jeju United FC's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Incheon United's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Jeju United FC's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Incheon United, 1 for Jeju United FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Incheon United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 50% versus Jeju United FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 38% | Jeju United FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.34 xG and Jeju United FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.899 / defence 0.868 | Jeju United FC attack 0.893 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.095. Data: 38 Incheon United games / 38 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 46% | Draw 32% | Jeju United FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Jeju United FC 4.55. Incheon United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Incheon United as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Incheon United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Incheon United 50% | Jeju United FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 46% | Draw 32% | Jeju United FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Incheon United 1.34 / Jeju United FC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.899 / def 0.868 | Jeju United FC attack 0.893 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Jeju United FC xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Incheon United 0 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC part of?
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 46% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Incheon United and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
Record (4 meetings): Incheon United 3W | Draws 0 | Jeju United FC 1W.
What form are Incheon United and Jeju United FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Incheon United's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.89x) against Incheon United's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
46%
2.17
32%
3.11
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.19
0.85
Jeju United FC xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
6%
17.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.7 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.85 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Incheon United have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 27W 29D 20L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Jeju United FC's form line: 24W 21D 31L from 76 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Incheon United against 1.22 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Incheon United have posted 1.50 PPG from 38 outings (14W 15D 9L).
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 14W 7D 17L from 38 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Incheon United are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 27W 29D 20L in their last 76 games (1.45 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 24W 21D 31L in their last 76 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Jeju United FC away?
Incheon United's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.50 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Incheon United
1
Draws
4
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Jeju United FC 3-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 47%, Jeju United FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Incheon United) and 53% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Incheon United have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Incheon United's recent matches and 58% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Incheon United's recent games and 53% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Incheon United have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat Incheon United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Incheon United 0-1 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.34 xG and Jeju United FC 0.85 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Incheon United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.90 / defence 0.87 against Jeju United FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.97, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 46% | Draw 32% | Jeju United FC 22%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Jeju United FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 38%, Jeju United FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.45 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.