Gwangju FC 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Relegation Group - 34 as Gwangju FC welcome Gimcheon Sangmu FC to Gwangju Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gwangju FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gwangju FC's home record at Gwangju Football Stadium: 1W 3D 6L from 10 K League 1 appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gwangju FC 1.00 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Gwangju FC, 2 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 5 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Gwangju FC in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 45% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 45% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.10 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.944 / defence 1.349 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.891 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.328. Data: 66 Gwangju FC games / 66 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 23% | Draw 31% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.17. Gimcheon Sangmu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gwangju FC 70% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Group - 34 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 23% | Draw 31% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Gwangju FC 1.10 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.944 / def 1.349 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.891 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gwangju FC 1 - 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Relegation Group - 34 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 23% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (9 meetings): Gwangju FC 2W | Draws 5 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W.
What form are Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gwangju FC's attack rating (0.94) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Gwangju FC's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
23%
4.28
31%
3.27
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.69
1.59
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
4.28
23%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
5%
21.11
15%
6.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.59 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 71 outings, Gwangju FC have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 18W 21D 32L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 23W 26D 22L from 71 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gwangju FC on 1.06 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gwangju FC have posted 1.09 PPG from 35 outings (10W 8D 17L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 12W 13D 10L from 35 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gwangju FC are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.30 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 71 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 18W 21D 32L in their last 71 games (1.06 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 23W 26D 22L in their last 71 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.09 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 5 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Gwangju FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gwangju FC
6
Draws
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 2, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gwangju FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 51%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Gwangju FC) and 51% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC have failed to score in 31% of games; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Gwangju FC's games and 63% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 51% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Gwangju FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC finished level at 1-1 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Relegation Group - 34, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.10 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.59 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.35 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.92, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 23% | Draw 31% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 45%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.06 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.