Gangwon FC 2-3 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC meet at Chuncheon Songam Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Monday 15 August 2022 at 10:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gangwon FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gangwon FC at Chuncheon Songam Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Gangwon FC — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 55% versus Suwon City FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 48% | Suwon City FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.26 xG and Suwon City FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.126 / defence 0.980 | Suwon City FC attack 0.842 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.216. Suwon City FC's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 59 Gangwon FC games / 59 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 42% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Suwon City FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Gangwon FC 70% | Suwon City FC 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 15 Aug 2022, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 42% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Gangwon FC 1.26 / Suwon City FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.126 / def 0.980 | Suwon City FC attack 0.842 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Suwon City FC xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 10:00 on Monday 15 August 2022 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Gangwon FC 2 - 3 Suwon City FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 42% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (1.13) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.84x) against Gangwon FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
42%
2.38
29%
3.48
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.26
1.00
Suwon City FC xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
8%
12.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.00 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gangwon FC come into this having played 64 games, going 20W 19D 25L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Suwon City FC sit at 1.31 PPG from 64 outings (23W 15D 26L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Gangwon FC against 1.31 for Suwon City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gangwon FC's home form reads 15W 9D 7L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Gangwon FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Suwon City FC have taken 1.10 points per game from 31 outings (8W 10D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gangwon FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.45 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 64 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 20W 19D 25L in their last 64 games (1.23 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 23W 15D 26L in their last 64 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.74 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 4-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
3
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 52%, Suwon City FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Gangwon FC) and 45% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 48% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 45% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Gangwon FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Gangwon FC 2-3 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.26 xG and Suwon City FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Suwon City FC outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.13 / defence 0.98 against Suwon City FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.78, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 42% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 29%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 48%, Suwon City FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.23 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.