Gangwon FC 3-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Gangwon FC take on Daegu FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Gangwon FC welcome Daegu FC to Gangneung Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 April 2021 at 06:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.10 xG and Daegu FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.899 / defence 1.148 | Daegu FC attack 0.809 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 0.933 / away 1.034. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing Gangwon FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Gangwon FC games / 8 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 35% | Draw 37% | Daegu FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Daegu FC 3.57. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Gangneung Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 35% | Draw 37% | Daegu FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Gangwon FC 1.10 / Daegu FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.899 / def 1.148 | Daegu FC attack 0.809 / def 1.306 | league avg home 0.933 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Daegu FC xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 10 April 2021 at Gangneung Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Gangwon FC 3 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Gangneung Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 35% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 28% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Gangwon FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (0.90) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.86
37%
2.70
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.06
0.96
Daegu FC xG
2.86
35%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
9%
10.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 0.96 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Pre-Season
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2024, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
4
Draws
2
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Daegu FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Daegu FC 2-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Gangwon FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Daegu FC 3-0 at Gangneung Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.10 xG and Daegu FC 0.96 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gangwon FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Daegu FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.31, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 35% | Draw 37% | Daegu FC 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Gangwon FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.