FC Anyang vs Jeju United FC – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a K League 1 clash, Relegation Group - 37 as FC Anyang welcome Jeju United FC to Anyang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 05:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all K League 1 games this season, FC Anyang have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, FC Anyang have posted 4W 2D 4L at Anyang Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeju United FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Jeju United FC's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Anyang 1.60 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of FC Anyang: 5 wins from 7 previous clashes against 2 for Jeju United FC, with 0 draws across those contests.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2026, ended 0–2 with Jeju United FC winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC Anyang and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

FC Anyang in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Anyang 65% and Jeju United FC 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 51% | Jeju United FC 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.37 xG and Jeju United FC 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.949 / defence 1.286 | Jeju United FC attack 1.015 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.328. Data: 66 FC Anyang games / 66 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Anyang 28% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 44%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Jeju United FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeju United FC at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Anyang 80% | Jeju United FC 80% BTTS from recent games.

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