Daejeon Citizen 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Daejeon Citizen host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Daejeon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 February 2025 at 05:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Daejeon Citizen — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Daejeon Citizen have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Daejeon World Cup Stadium this season.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Daejeon Citizen) versus 2.40 (Ulsan Hyundai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Daejeon Citizen have won 1, Ulsan Hyundai FC 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Daejeon Citizen trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 60% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 49% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.22 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.938 / defence 0.947 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.946 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.242. Data: 34 Daejeon Citizen games / 34 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Daejeon Citizen 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.22 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.938 / def 0.947 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.946 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Daejeon Citizen 0 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 39% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (4 meetings): Daejeon Citizen 1W | Draws 1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Daejeon Citizen's attack rating (0.94) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Daejeon Citizen's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
39%
2.59
28%
3.56
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.33
1.11
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
10%
10.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.11 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Daejeon Citizen's recent record stands at 24W 27D 25L from 76 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 44W 16D 16L across 76 games — 1.95 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daejeon Citizen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Daejeon Citizen have managed 16W 11D 11L from 38 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 17W 9D 12L across 38 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.64 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 24W 27D 25L in their last 76 games (1.30 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 44W 16D 16L in their last 76 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.55 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Daejeon Citizen or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daejeon Citizen have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daejeon Citizen's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Daejeon Citizen
2
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 5, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 August 2026, when Daejeon Citizen 2-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 53%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Daejeon Citizen) and 42% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 34%; Daejeon Citizen have failed to score in 29% of games; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Daejeon Citizen's recent matches and 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 42% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Daejeon Citizen have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Daejeon Citizen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Daejeon Citizen 0-2 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.22 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.94 / defence 0.95 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.93, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 49%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.