Daejeon Citizen 0-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Daejeon Citizen host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Daejeon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 September 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Daejeon Citizen — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Daejeon Citizen have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Daejeon Citizen) versus 1.60 (Ulsan Hyundai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Daejeon Citizen have won 1, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 1–4 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Daejeon Citizen trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 62% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 49% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.08 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.854 / defence 0.808 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.783 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.249. Data: 64 Daejeon Citizen games / 64 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 42% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Daejeon Citizen 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 42% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.08 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.854 / def 0.808 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.783 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Daejeon Citizen 0 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 42% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (4 meetings): Daejeon Citizen 1W | Draws 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Daejeon Citizen's attack rating (0.85) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Daejeon Citizen's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
42%
2.38
32%
3.16
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
1.87
0.79
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
9%
11.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 12.1 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 0.79 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Daejeon Citizen's recent record stands at 20W 26D 23L from 69 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 39W 14D 16L across 69 games — 1.90 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daejeon Citizen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Daejeon Citizen have managed 13W 11D 10L from 34 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 15W 7D 12L across 34 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.64 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 20W 26D 23L in their last 69 games (1.25 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 39W 14D 16L in their last 69 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.47 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Daejeon Citizen or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daejeon Citizen have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daejeon Citizen's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Daejeon Citizen
3
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Daejeon Citizen 2-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 56%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Daejeon Citizen) and 47% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen have failed to score in 29% of games; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Daejeon Citizen's recent matches and 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Daejeon Citizen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ulsan Hyundai FC defy the odds to beat Daejeon Citizen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Daejeon Citizen 0-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.08 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.79 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Daejeon Citizen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.85 / defence 0.81 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.78 / defence 0.89, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 42% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 26%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 49%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.