Daegu FC 2-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 2 as Daegu FC welcome Suwon City FC to DGB Daegu Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Daegu FC at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
Suwon City FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Suwon City FC's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Daegu FC) versus 1.50 (Suwon City FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 56% versus Suwon City FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 49% | Suwon City FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.35 xG and Suwon City FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.940 / defence 1.012 | Suwon City FC attack 0.947 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.241. Data: 66 Daegu FC games / 66 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 41% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Suwon City FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Daegu FC 40% | Suwon City FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 41% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Daegu FC 1.35 / Suwon City FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.940 / def 1.012 | Suwon City FC attack 0.947 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Suwon City FC xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC 2 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 41% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Daegu FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
41%
2.46
27%
3.76
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.54
1.19
Suwon City FC xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
8%
11.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.19 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 23W 24D 25L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 26W 18D 28L from 72 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.29 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.57 PPG from 35 outings (15W 10D 10L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 9W 11D 15L from 35 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Daegu FC are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.47 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 61%.
Last 72 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 23W 24D 25L in their last 72 games (1.29 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.57 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Daegu FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
5
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 46%, Suwon City FC 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Daegu FC) and 49% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Daegu FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Suwon City FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 51% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Daegu FC's recent games and 49% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Daegu FC edge out Suwon City FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Suwon City FC 2-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Relegation Round - 2, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.35 xG and Suwon City FC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Suwon City FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 41% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 33%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 49%, Suwon City FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.29 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.