Daegu FC 1-2 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daegu FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
DGB Arena plays host to Daegu FC versus Gwangju FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 20 August 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Daegu FC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daegu FC's home record at DGB Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DGB Arena.
Gwangju FC have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gwangju FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gwangju FC have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Daegu FC's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Daegu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 56% versus Gwangju FC 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Daegu FC 44% | Gwangju FC 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.30 xG and Gwangju FC 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.945 / defence 0.957 | Gwangju FC attack 0.581 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 0.978 / away 1.157. Gwangju FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.408 — this is suppressing Daegu FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Daegu FC games / 24 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 52% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Gwangju FC 5.56. Daegu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Gwangju FC's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 50% | Gwangju FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: DGB Arena • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 52% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 35% | xG Daegu FC 1.30 / Gwangju FC 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.945 / def 0.957 | Gwangju FC attack 0.581 / def 1.408 | league avg home 0.978 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Gwangju FC xG
35%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 20 August 2021 at DGB Arena.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Daegu FC 1 - 2 Gwangju FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Arena.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 52% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Daegu FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Gwangju FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Gwangju FC's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (0.58x) against Daegu FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 23/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
52%
1.91
29%
3.42
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
1.95
0.64
Gwangju FC xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
5%
20.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 12.0 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.64 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 9W 7D 7L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gwangju FC's form line: 6W 4D 13L from 23 games, 0.96 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Gwangju FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Daegu FC are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gwangju FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.82 PPG from 11 outings (5W 5D 1L).
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 2W 1D 8L from 11 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daegu FC are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 0.91 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 23 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Blended
Gwangju FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 9W 7D 7L in their last 23 games (1.48 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 6W 4D 13L in their last 23 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.82 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Daegu FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Daegu FC
4
Draws
2
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 4, Gwangju FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Daegu FC 1-0 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Gwangju FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 54%, Gwangju FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Daegu FC) and 46% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Gwangju FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Gwangju FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 46% of Gwangju FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Daegu FC's recent games and 46% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 36% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gwangju FC defy the odds to beat Daegu FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Daegu FC 1-2 at DGB Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.30 xG and Gwangju FC 0.64 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gwangju FC outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against Gwangju FC attack 0.58 / defence 1.41, drawn from 23/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 52% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 18%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Gwangju FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 44%, Gwangju FC 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Daegu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Gwangju FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Daegu FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.