Daegu FC 1-4 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
DGB Arena plays host to Daegu FC versus Gwangju FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Wednesday 10 March 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.14 xG and Gwangju FC 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.885 / defence 1.210 | Gwangju FC attack 0.759 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 0.684. Data: 2 Daegu FC games / 2 Gwangju FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 48% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Gwangju FC 5.00. Daegu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Gwangju FC's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.77 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: DGB Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Mar 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 48% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 32% | xG Daegu FC 1.14 / Gwangju FC 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.885 / def 1.210 | Gwangju FC attack 0.759 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.143 / away 0.684 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Gwangju FC xG
32%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 10:00 on Wednesday 10 March 2021 at DGB Arena.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Daegu FC 1 - 4 Gwangju FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Arena.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 48% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Daegu FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Gwangju FC's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (0.76x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.9%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
48%
2.09
32%
3.15
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
1.77
0.63
Gwangju FC xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.15
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
7%
15.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 10.8 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.4 | 12.2 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.63 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Daegu FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Daegu FC
4
Draws
2
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 4, Gwangju FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Daegu FC 1-0 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Gwangju FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Daegu FC 1-4 at DGB Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.14 xG and Gwangju FC 0.63 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Gwangju FC outscored their 0.63 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.21 against Gwangju FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.12, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 48% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 20%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Gwangju FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.