Daegu FC 3-2 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
DGB Daegu Bank Park plays host to Daegu FC versus Gwangju FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Daegu FC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Daegu FC's home record at DGB Daegu Bank Park: 3W 6D 1L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
Gwangju FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gwangju FC have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Daegu FC, 1.70 for Gwangju FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Daegu FC 1W, Gwangju FC 0W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Daegu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Daegu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 50% versus Gwangju FC 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Daegu FC 37% | Gwangju FC 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 0.98 xG and Gwangju FC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.659 / defence 0.861 | Gwangju FC attack 1.064 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.206. Daegu FC's attack strength of 0.659 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Daegu FC games / 43 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 31% | Draw 31% | Gwangju FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Gwangju FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gwangju FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Daegu FC 50% | Gwangju FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 31% | Draw 31% | Gwangju FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Daegu FC 0.98 / Gwangju FC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.659 / def 0.861 | Gwangju FC attack 1.064 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Gwangju FC xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Daegu FC 3 - 2 Gwangju FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 31% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Daegu FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
Record (3 meetings): Daegu FC 1W | Draws 2 | Gwangju FC 0W.
What form are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Gwangju FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Gwangju FC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (1.06x) against Daegu FC's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
31%
3.22
31%
3.19
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.09
1.11
Gwangju FC xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.7 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.11 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 13W 14D 11L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Gwangju FC's form line: 16W 11D 11L from 38 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.55 for Gwangju FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (7W 9D 3L).
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 7W 7D 5L from 19 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daegu FC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.24 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Gwangju FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 13W 14D 11L in their last 38 games (1.39 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Daegu FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Daegu FC
4
Draws
2
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 4, Gwangju FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Daegu FC 1-0 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 53%, Gwangju FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Daegu FC and 26% for Gwangju FC.
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Gwangju FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Gwangju FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 53% of Gwangju FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Daegu FC's recent games and 26% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Daegu FC defy the odds to beat Gwangju FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Gwangju FC 3-2 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 12, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 0.98 xG and Gwangju FC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gwangju FC outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.66 / defence 0.86 against Gwangju FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 31% | Draw 31% | Gwangju FC 38%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 37%, Gwangju FC 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.39 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.