Daegu FC 0-2 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Seoul at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs FC Seoul encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Daegu FC host FC Seoul at DGB Daegu Bank Park in K League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Daegu FC have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Seoul — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, FC Seoul have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. FC Seoul's 2.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Daegu FC's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Daegu FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Seoul in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 53% versus FC Seoul 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 45% | FC Seoul 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.15 xG and FC Seoul 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.979 / defence 0.980 | FC Seoul attack 1.073 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.164. Data: 33 Daegu FC games / 33 FC Seoul games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 34% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 38%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | FC Seoul 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Seoul at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Daegu FC 60% | FC Seoul 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 34% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Daegu FC 1.15 / FC Seoul 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.979 / def 0.980 | FC Seoul attack 1.073 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.22
FC Seoul xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Daegu FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Daegu FC 0 - 2 FC Seoul.
Where is Daegu FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Daegu FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 34% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Daegu FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and FC Seoul?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and FC Seoul in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. FC Seoul (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (0.98) and FC Seoul's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
34%
2.92
28%
3.59
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.37
1.22
FC Seoul xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
10%
9.90
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.22 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Daegu FC come into this having played 38 games, going 15W 10D 13L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, FC Seoul sit at 1.24 PPG from 38 outings (12W 11D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.45 PPG, FC Seoul on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Daegu FC's home form reads 8W 6D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Seoul have taken 1.37 points per game from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Daegu FC are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.21 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 games (1.45 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.58 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2023, when FC Seoul won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
4
Draws
3
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, FC Seoul have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2025, when FC Seoul 2-2 Daegu FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 53%, FC Seoul 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Daegu FC) and 37% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Daegu FC have failed to score in 26% of games; FC Seoul in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play FC Seoul?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Daegu FC's games and 58% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daegu FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Daegu FC's recent games and 37% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
FC Seoul cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Daegu FC 0-2 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.15 xG and FC Seoul 1.22 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Daegu FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against FC Seoul attack 1.07 / defence 0.97, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 34% | Draw 28% | FC Seoul 38%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, FC Seoul 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Seoul's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.45 PPG, FC Seoul 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Seoul (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.