Daegu FC 0-0 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Daegu FC host FC Seoul at DGB Daegu Bank Park in K League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 06:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Daegu FC have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
FC Seoul — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, FC Seoul have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Daegu FC) versus 1.50 (FC Seoul). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Daegu FC, 1 for FC Seoul and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 57% versus FC Seoul 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 46% | FC Seoul 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.10 xG and FC Seoul 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.760 / defence 0.946 | FC Seoul attack 0.915 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.093. Daegu FC's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Daegu FC games / 38 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 37% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 29%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | FC Seoul 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Daegu FC 50% | FC Seoul 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 37% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Daegu FC 1.10 / FC Seoul 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.760 / def 0.946 | FC Seoul attack 0.915 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.95
FC Seoul xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Daegu FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 06:00 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Daegu FC 0 - 0 FC Seoul.
Where is Daegu FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Daegu FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 37% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Daegu FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and FC Seoul?
Record (4 meetings): Daegu FC 2W | Draws 1 | FC Seoul 1W.
What form are Daegu FC and FC Seoul in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. FC Seoul (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (0.76) and FC Seoul's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
37%
2.69
33%
2.99
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.04
0.95
FC Seoul xG
2.69
37%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Daegu FC and 0.95 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Daegu FC come into this having played 76 games, going 23W 30D 23L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, FC Seoul sit at 1.33 PPG from 76 outings (25W 26D 25L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.30 PPG, FC Seoul on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Daegu FC's home form reads 15W 15D 8L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Seoul have taken 1.32 points per game from 38 outings (12W 14D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Daegu FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.39 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 23W 30D 23L in their last 76 games (1.30 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 25W 26D 25L in their last 76 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.58 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2023, when FC Seoul won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
4
Draws
3
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, FC Seoul have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2025, when FC Seoul 2-2 Daegu FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 50%, FC Seoul 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Daegu FC) and 42% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play FC Seoul?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 58% of FC Seoul's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Daegu FC's recent games and 42% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and FC Seoul tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, FC Seoul in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Daegu FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC and FC Seoul finished level at 0-0 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.10 xG and FC Seoul 0.95 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Daegu FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Seoul landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.76 / defence 0.95 against FC Seoul attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 37% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 29%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 46%, FC Seoul 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.30 PPG, FC Seoul 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. FC Seoul (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.