Al Wehda Club 2-2 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wehda Club at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Al Wehda Club welcome Al-Fayha to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 3 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Wehda Club have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Wehda Club's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Al Wehda Club) versus 1.00 (Al-Fayha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al Wehda Club, 2 for Al-Fayha and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Al Wehda Club winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Wehda Club trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Fayha trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 59% versus Al-Fayha 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 59% | Al-Fayha 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.18 xG and Al-Fayha 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.953 / defence 1.159 | Al-Fayha attack 0.808 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.254. Data: 39 Al Wehda Club games / 39 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 36% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 36%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Fayha 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al Wehda Club 70% | Al-Fayha 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 3 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 36% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.18 / Al-Fayha 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.953 / def 1.159 | Al-Fayha attack 0.808 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al-Fayha xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 3 October 2024 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha?
Al Wehda Club 2 - 2 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 36% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha?
Record (4 meetings): Al Wehda Club 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Fayha 2W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Wehda Club's attack rating (0.95) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wehda Club Win
36%
2.76
28%
3.58
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
2.36
1.18
Al-Fayha xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
11%
9.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.18 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Wehda Club come into this having played 39 games, going 11W 7D 21L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.23 PPG from 39 outings (12W 12D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Wehda Club on 1.03 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Wehda Club's home form reads 6W 5D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 1.37 points per game from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.21 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 11W 7D 21L in their last 39 games (1.03 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Fayha's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.21 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Wehda Club
3
Draws
2
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 1, Al-Fayha have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Al-Fayha 0-0 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Wehda Club at 68%, Al-Fayha at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Al Wehda Club and 63% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Al Wehda Club's games and 74% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Al Wehda Club's matches and 63% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Al Wehda Club and Al-Fayha drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.18 xG and Al-Fayha 1.18 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Wehda Club beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fayha outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against Al-Fayha attack 0.81 / defence 0.87, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 36% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 36%, with Al Wehda Club to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 59%, Al-Fayha 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wehda Club 1.03 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.