Al Wehda Club 2-3 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wehda Club at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al-Ettifaq travel to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Al Wehda Club. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 October 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wehda Club stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Al Wehda Club) versus 1.70 (Al-Ettifaq). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Wehda Club, 0 for Al-Ettifaq and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Wehda Club trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 48% versus Al-Ettifaq 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 48% | Al-Ettifaq 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.46 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.217 / defence 1.042 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.771 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.412. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Al Wehda Club games / 40 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 45% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ettifaq 3.45. Al Wehda Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wehda Club as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wehda Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Wehda Club 60% | Al-Ettifaq 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 45% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.46 / Al-Ettifaq 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 1.217 / def 1.042 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.771 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Al Wehda Club (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Al-Ettifaq xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Wehda Club 2 - 3 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 45% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Wehda Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (2 meetings): Al Wehda Club 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Wehda Club's attack rating (1.22) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wehda Club Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.85
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
2.60
1.14
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
7%
14.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.14 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Wehda Club's recent record stands at 12W 9D 19L from 40 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 16L across 40 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Wehda Club on 1.12 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Wehda Club have managed 7W 6D 7L from 20 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 5W 5D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.10 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 12W 9D 19L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al Wehda Club's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.35 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al Wehda Club or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wehda Club have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Wehda Club
4
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 0, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2025, when Al-Ettifaq 2-1 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 50%, Al-Ettifaq 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Wehda Club) and 35% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al Wehda Club have failed to score in 30% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Wehda Club's recent matches and 30% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Wehda Club's recent games and 35% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al Wehda Club 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Wehda Club 2-3 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.46 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.14 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 1.22 / defence 1.04 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.77 / defence 0.78, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 45% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 29%, with Al Wehda Club to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 48%, Al-Ettifaq 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wehda Club 1.12 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.