Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 70% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to King Fahd International Stadium to take on Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Friday 27 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 8W 2D 0L — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.60 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2022, ended Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a Al-Hilal Saudi FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (last 10 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (last 10 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.49 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.281 / defence 0.684 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.048 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.400. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.281 — their 2.49 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 1.271 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output up. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have a tight defence (rating 0.684), which is pulling Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 40 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 10.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% | Draw 17% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 13%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.43 | Draw 5.91 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 7.54. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (70%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 70% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 home games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 4 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 75% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, matchday 11 | Venue: King Fahd International Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% | Draw 17% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.49 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.281 / def 0.684 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.048 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah FAQs
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 27 October 2023 at King Fahd International Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd International Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Pro League fixture (matchday 11) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 70% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.28) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 40 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
70%
1.43
17%
5.91
13%
7.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.49
1.00
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.91
17%
Draw
7.54
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
8%
12.07
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
1%
90.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.00 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 10 games, going 8W 2D 0L for 2.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Al-Ahli Jeddah sit at 2.20 PPG from 10 outings (7W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 2.60 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah on 2.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 4W 0D 0L across their last 4 home games, a 3.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 4 away games (2W 0D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking output running into Al-Hilal Saudi FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Home) vs Al-Ahli Jeddah (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Form FAQs
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 8W 2D 0L in their last 10 games (2.60 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 3.00 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 1 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Sep 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 September 2026: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 25%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 75% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 75% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 75% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 100% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 at King Fahd International Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.49 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.00 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.28 / defence 0.68 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.05 / defence 1.27, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% | Draw 17% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 13%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.60 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hilal Saudi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.