Al Shabab 2-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 45%, yet in-form Al Shabab provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Shabab vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

Al-Raed travel to Al-Shabab Club Stadium to take on Al Shabab in Pro League (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Shabab stand at 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Al Shabab have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across their last 10 games, Al-Raed have recorded 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Al-Raed's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Al Shabab carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

Al Shabab hold a clear advantage across the 6 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for Al-Raed and 1 draw.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 May 2024, ended Al Shabab 2–0 Al-Raed — a Al Shabab win.

The head-to-head data gives Al Shabab an edge — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

In-Play Profile

Al Shabab in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Al-Raed in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 42% versus Al-Raed 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 42% | Al-Raed 53%). Note also that Al-Raed surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Al Shabab recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.14 xG and Al-Raed 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 0.981 / defence 0.871 | Al-Raed attack 1.330 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.267. Al-Raed have an above-average attack rating of 1.330, which lifts their away xG to 1.47. Data: built from Al Shabab's last 38 games and Al-Raed's last 38.

Result probabilities: Al Shabab 29% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 45%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 3.40 | Draw 3.86 | Al-Raed 2.24. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Shabab (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Al Shabab's last 10 home games and Al-Raed's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Shabab 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Raed 70% (last 10 away games).

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