Al-Ittihad FC 4-1 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al Khaleej Saihat.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al Khaleej Saihat have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Ittihad FC. A 0.70 PPG lead over Al Khaleej Saihat (1.30 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al-Ittihad FC have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Al Khaleej Saihat managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 63% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 68% | Al Khaleej Saihat 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.97 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.602 / defence 1.083 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.831 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.279. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.602 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Al-Ittihad FC games / 38 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 56% | Draw 22% | Al Khaleej Saihat 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Al Khaleej Saihat 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al Khaleej Saihat 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 56% | Draw 22% | Al Khaleej Saihat 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.97 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.602 / def 1.083 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.831 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 September 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ittihad FC 4 - 1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 56% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 3W | Draws 1 | Al Khaleej Saihat 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.60x league average) is weighed against Al Khaleej Saihat's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (0.83x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
56%
1.77
22%
4.60
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.12
1.15
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
14%
7.18
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
3%
32.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.15 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 38 games, going 19W 6D 13L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 1.08 PPG from 38 outings (10W 11D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 11W 2D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 0.97 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 19W 6D 13L in their last 38 games (1.66 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 10W 11D 17L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 1.84 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 0-3 on 3 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 74%, Al Khaleej Saihat 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 79% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 32% (Al Khaleej Saihat). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat in 32%; Al Khaleej Saihat in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 47% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 32% of Al Khaleej Saihat's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Khaleej Saihat 4-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.97 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.15 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.60 / defence 1.08 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.83 / defence 0.89, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 56% | Draw 22% | Al Khaleej Saihat 22%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 68%, Al Khaleej Saihat 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.26 average — above their attacking norm. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.