Al Shabab 2-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 45%, yet in-form Al Shabab provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Shabab vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Al-Raed travel to Al-Shabab Club Stadium to take on Al Shabab. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Shabab have posted 5W 0D 5L at Al-Shabab Club Stadium — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Raed have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Raed's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al Shabab have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Al-Raed have managed just 1 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Al Shabab winning.
The historical record gives Al Shabab a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 42% versus Al-Raed 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 42% | Al-Raed 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.14 xG and Al-Raed 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 0.981 / defence 0.871 | Al-Raed attack 1.330 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.267. Al-Raed have an above-average attack strength of 1.330 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Al Shabab games / 38 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 29% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 45%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Raed 2.22. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Shabab (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 50% | Al-Raed 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 29% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Shabab 1.14 / Al-Raed 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 0.981 / def 0.871 | Al-Raed attack 1.330 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Al-Raed xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Raed kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Al Shabab 2 - 1 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 29% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Raed?
Record (6 meetings): Al Shabab 4W | Draws 1 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Raed in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (0.98) and Al-Raed's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
29%
3.40
26%
3.86
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.61
1.47
Al-Raed xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
7%
14.76
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.47 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 15W 8D 15L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Raed's form line: 10W 11D 17L from 38 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Shabab on 1.39 PPG, Al-Raed on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (9W 3D 7L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 5W 7D 7L from 19 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.26 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Early Season
Al-Raed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 15W 8D 15L in their last 38 games (1.39 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 10W 11D 17L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Raed away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.58 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al Shabab have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2021, when Al Shabab won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al Shabab
1
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 6, Al-Raed have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Raed?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 53%, Al-Raed 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al Shabab) and 47% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Al-Raed in 32%; Al-Raed in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al Shabab's games and 58% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al Shabab's recent games and 47% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Shabab defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Raed 2-1 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.14 xG and Al-Raed 1.47 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 0.98 / defence 0.87 against Al-Raed attack 1.33 / defence 0.81, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 29% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 45%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Al Shabab win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 42%, Al-Raed 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Raed's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.39 PPG, Al-Raed 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Shabab win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.