Al-Raed 0-2 Damac – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Raed host Damac at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 January 2025 at 15:05 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Raed have posted 3W 4D 3L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Damac have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Raed at 1.00 PPG versus Damac's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Raed register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Damac in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Raed, 3 for Damac and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Damac in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 53% versus Damac 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 55% | Damac 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.64 xG and Damac 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.961 / defence 1.020 | Damac attack 0.971 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.385. Damac bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Al-Raed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Al-Raed games / 47 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 44% | Draw 24% | Damac 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Damac 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 60% | Damac 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Jan 2025, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 44% | Draw 24% | Damac 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Raed 1.64 / Damac 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.961 / def 1.020 | Damac attack 0.971 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Damac xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Damac kick off?
Al-Raed vs Damac kicked off at 15:05 on Friday 10 January 2025 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Damac?
Al-Raed 0 - 2 Damac.
Where is Al-Raed vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Damac part of?
Al-Raed vs Damac is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 44% chance of winning, Damac a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Raed and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Damac?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Raed 2W | Draws 1 | Damac 3W.
What form are Al-Raed and Damac in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Damac (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Raed's attack at 0.96x the league average against Damac's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
44%
2.28
24%
4.17
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.01
1.37
Damac xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
6%
16.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.37 for Damac, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 13W 12D 22L from 47 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 19L across 47 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 1.09 PPG, Damac on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 7W 5D 11L from 23 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Damac's away record stands at 5W 5D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.36 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 13W 12D 22L in their last 47 games (1.09 PPG), while Damac have gone 14W 14D 19L in their last 47 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Damac away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.13 PPG; Damac away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Damac runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Damac go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2023, when Al-Raed won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
1
Draws
5
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Damac?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 2, Damac have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Damac 1-0 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 52%, Damac 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al-Raed) and 52% (Damac). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed have failed to score in 35% of games; Damac in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al-Raed's games and 61% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Raed vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Al-Raed's matches and 52% of Damac's.
Do Al-Raed and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Damac in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Raed 0-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.64 xG and Damac 1.37 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.96 / defence 1.02 against Damac attack 0.97 / defence 1.23, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 44% | Draw 24% | Damac 32%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Damac win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 55%, Damac 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Damac's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.09 PPG, Damac 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Damac (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.