Al-Raed 1-1 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Raed face Al Taee.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al Taee travel to Al Raid Club Stadium to take on Al-Raed in Pro League (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Raed have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Al-Raed have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Al Taee — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Al Taee away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Al-Raed) versus 0.90 (Al Taee). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Al-Raed have won 1, Al Taee 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2023, ended Al-Raed 3–4 Al Taee — a Al Taee win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Raed trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Taee trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 57% versus Al Taee 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 65% | Al Taee 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.66 xG and Al Taee 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.949 / defence 0.977 | Al Taee attack 0.713 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.404. Al Taee's defence rating of 1.209 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Raed's projected output up. Al Taee's attack rating of 0.713 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Al-Raed's last 60 games and Al Taee's last 60.
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 52% | Draw 27% | Al Taee 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 1.93 | Draw 3.70 | Al Taee 4.76. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Raed 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Taee 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, matchday 31 | Venue: Al Raid Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 52% | Draw 27% | Al Taee 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Al-Raed 1.66 / Al Taee 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.949 / def 0.977 | Al Taee attack 0.713 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Al Taee xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Raed vs Al Taee FAQs
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Taee kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Al Raid Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Al-Raed 1 - 1 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Al Raid Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Taee is a Pro League fixture (matchday 31) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 52% chance of winning, Al Taee a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Taee will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Raed vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.95) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Raed's last 60 games and Al Taee's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.70
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.63
0.98
Al Taee xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
4%
24.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Raed vs Al Taee Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Al-Raed and 0.98 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Al-Raed have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 17W 14D 29L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Al Taee's form line: 17W 10D 33L from 60 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 1.08 PPG, Al Taee on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Raed have posted 1.17 PPG from their last 30 home games (10W 5D 15L).
On the road, Al Taee have gone 5W 5D 20L from their last 30 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Raed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Raed are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.17 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Current Season
Al Taee
Current Season
Al-Raed (Home) vs Al Taee (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Raed
Current Season
Al Taee
Current Season
❓ Al-Raed vs Al Taee Form FAQs
What form are Al-Raed and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 17W 10D 33L in their last 60 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.17 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 11 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Nov 2021, when Al-Raed won Al-Raed 4-0 Al Taee.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al Taee specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
3
Draws
2
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Raed vs Al Taee H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Taee?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Raed have won 1, Al Taee have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Taee last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 May 2024: Al-Raed 1-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Taee?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 53%, Al Taee 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Raed and 53% for Al Taee. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Taee in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Raed vs Al Taee Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Raed and Al Taee matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 50% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Raed and Al Taee matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Raed's matches and 53% of Al Taee's.
Do Al-Raed and Al Taee matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 60% of Al Taee's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Raed and Al Taee share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Raid Club Stadium, Regular Season - 31, as Al-Raed and Al Taee drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.66 xG and Al Taee 0.98 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against Al Taee attack 0.71 / defence 1.21, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 52% | Draw 27% | Al Taee 21%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 65%, Al Taee 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taee's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.08 PPG, Al Taee 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Taee (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.