Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Al Taawon travel to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium to take on Al-Qadisiyah FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 April 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 2 for Al Taawon and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Al Taawon trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 64% and Al Taawon 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 68% | Al Taawon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.16 xG and Al Taawon 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.296 / defence 1.016 | Al Taawon attack 0.805 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.432. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 2.16 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 44 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 58% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Al Taawon 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% | Al Taawon 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 58% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.16 / Al Taawon 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.296 / def 1.016 | Al Taawon attack 0.805 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Al Taawon xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Sunday 18 April 2027 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 58% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al Taawon 2W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (1.30) and Al Taawon's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.14
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.33
1.17
Al Taawon xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
12%
8.65
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
2%
48.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.17 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have picked up 2.32 PPG on a 31W 9D 4L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon's form line: 15W 12D 17L from 44 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the form team by 1.02 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 2.23 PPG from 22 outings (14W 7D 1L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 8W 4D 10L from 22 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.43 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.43 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 31W 9D 4L in their last 44 games (2.32 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 15W 12D 17L in their last 44 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.23 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 20 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2025, when Al Taawon won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1
Draws
2
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al Taawon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2026, when Al Taawon 0-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 64%, Al Taawon 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 59% for Al Taawon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al Taawon in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 64% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 59% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.