Al-Qadisiyah FC 4-0 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Riyadh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Riyadh make the trip to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium to face Al-Qadisiyah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Al-Qadisiyah FC are significantly better at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Riyadh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Riyadh away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Qadisiyah FC. A 1.00 PPG lead over Al Riyadh (1.80 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Qadisiyah FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Al Riyadh in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W, Al Riyadh 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al Riyadh — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% versus Al Riyadh 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% | Al Riyadh 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.95 xG and Al Riyadh 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.090 / defence 0.773 | Al Riyadh attack 0.887 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.483. Al Riyadh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Al-Qadisiyah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 45 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 59% | Draw 22% | Al Riyadh 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Al Riyadh 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% | Al Riyadh 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 59% | Draw 22% | Al Riyadh 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.95 / Al Riyadh 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.090 / def 0.773 | Al Riyadh attack 0.887 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Al Riyadh xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 4 January 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 4 - 0 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 59% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Riyadh?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al Riyadh 1W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Al Riyadh (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Al Riyadh's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. Flip it around — Al Riyadh's attack (0.89x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.57
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.96
1.02
Al Riyadh xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
3%
36.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.02 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Riyadh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 27W 8D 10L from 45 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Riyadh, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 23L across 45 games — 1.02 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Riyadh heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 16W 4D 2L from 22 games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Riyadh's away record stands at 5W 4D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.07 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 27W 8D 10L in their last 45 games (1.98 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 12W 10D 23L in their last 45 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.36 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Riyadh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Riyadh in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4-0 on 4 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
1
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Riyadh?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, Al Riyadh have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Al Riyadh 0-4 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Riyadh?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%, Al Riyadh 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 64% (Al Riyadh). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al Riyadh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 68% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 64% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Qadisiyah FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al Riyadh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Riyadh 4-0 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.95 xG and Al Riyadh 1.02 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Riyadh landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.77 against Al Riyadh attack 0.89 / defence 1.23, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 59% | Draw 22% | Al Riyadh 19%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 51%, Al Riyadh 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.