Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood encounter.

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Analysis

Al Okhdood make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al-Qadisiyah FC in Pro League (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Friday 21 February 2025 at 15:10 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Qadisiyah FC's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 7W 0D 2L in their last 9 home games (2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al Okhdood (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.50 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2024, ended Al-Qadisiyah FC 0–0 Al Okhdood — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.

Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% versus Al Okhdood 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% | Al Okhdood 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.54 xG and Al Okhdood 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.923 / defence 0.862 | Al Okhdood attack 0.946 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.373. Data: built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 20 games and Al Okhdood's last 54.

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 47% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.13 | Draw 3.93 | Al Okhdood 3.61. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al-Qadisiyah FC 22% (last 9 home games) | Al Okhdood 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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