Al-Nassr 2-3 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Nassr welcome Al-Ettifaq to Al-Awwal Park in Pro League (matchday 21). Kick-off is Friday 21 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Nassr have gone 7W 1D 2L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Nassr have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Al-Nassr have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Nassr's games and 60% of Al-Ettifaq's (from Al-Nassr's last 10 home games and Al-Ettifaq's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Al-Nassr have won 3, Al-Ettifaq 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2024, ended Al-Nassr 3–0 Al-Ettifaq — a Al-Nassr win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 96% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 68% versus Al-Ettifaq 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 76% | Al-Ettifaq 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.49 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.278 / defence 0.772 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.115 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.361. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack rating of 1.278 — their 1.49 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ettifaq bring a tight defence (rating 0.779, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Nassr's projected output down. Al-Nassr have a tight defence (rating 0.772), which is pulling Al-Ettifaq's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Nassr's last 54 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 54.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.25 | Draw 3.89 | Al-Ettifaq 3.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Nassr 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, matchday 21 | Venue: Al-Awwal Park • Kick-off: Friday 21 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Al-Nassr 1.49 / Al-Ettifaq 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.278 / def 0.772 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.115 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Al-Ettifaq xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq FAQs
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 21 February 2025 at Al-Awwal Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Nassr 2 - 3 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al-Awwal Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq is a Pro League fixture (matchday 21) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 44% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.28x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Nassr's last 54 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.89
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.66
1.17
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
7%
14.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.17 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 39W 9D 6L from 54 games, a 2.33 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 19L across 54 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 18W 6D 3L from their last 27 home games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 11W 9D 7L across their last 27 away games, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.65 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.26 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Nassr (Home) vs Al-Ettifaq (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq Form FAQs
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 39W 9D 6L in their last 54 games (2.33 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 19W 16D 19L in their last 54 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.22 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 25 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Sep 2024, when Al-Nassr won Al-Ettifaq 0-3 Al-Nassr.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
3
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 August 2026: Al-Ettifaq 2-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 74% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 67%, Al-Ettifaq 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Al-Nassr) and 37% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 41%; Al-Ettifaq in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 41% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Al-Nassr's recent games and 37% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 96% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 63% of Al-Ettifaq's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al-Nassr 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Nassr 2-3 at Al-Awwal Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.49 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.17 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.28 / defence 0.77 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.11 / defence 0.78, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 30%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 76%, Al-Ettifaq 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Al-Ettifaq winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.