Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Fayha to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 7 November 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 5W 1D 3L from 9 Pro League matches — 1.78 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 0.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.78 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 1L across 4 games at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this term (2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.08 PPG ahead (1.78 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 33% versus Al-Fayha 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 44% | Al-Fayha 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.34 xG and Al-Fayha 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.927 / defence 0.891 | Al-Fayha attack 0.787 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.288. Data: 9 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 43 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 47% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Fayha 4.00. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 25% | Al-Fayha 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Nov 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 47% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.34 / Al-Fayha 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.927 / def 0.891 | Al-Fayha attack 0.787 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Al-Fayha xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 14:30 on Thursday 7 November 2024 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 47% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 5W-1D-3L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 0.78 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (0.93) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.59
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.25
0.90
Al-Fayha xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
41%
2.47
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.90 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 5W 1D 3L from 9 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 4L across 9 games — 0.78 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Al-Qadisiyah FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 0W 3D 1L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.78 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 games (1.78 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.25 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 25%, Al-Fayha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 50% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 50% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 50% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Fayha 2-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.34 xG and Al-Fayha 0.90 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fayha landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.89 against Al-Fayha attack 0.79 / defence 0.98, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 47% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 25%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 44%, Al-Fayha 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.