Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium plays host to Al-Qadisiyah FC versus Abha in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 16 October 2026 at 13:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Abha (all games): 0W 1D 5L across 6 Pro League outings this term — 0.17 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.83 per game is modest, conceding 2.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.17 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Abha away from home this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Qadisiyah FC. A 2.53 PPG lead over Abha (2.70 vs 0.17) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Abha in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Abha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% versus Abha 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% | Abha 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.38 xG and Abha 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.280 / defence 1.007 | Abha attack 0.863 / defence 1.387. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 2.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.387 — this is suppressing Al-Qadisiyah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 6 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 63% | Draw 22% | Abha 15%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Abha 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.38 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Abha 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 63% | Draw 22% | Abha 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.38 / Abha 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.280 / def 1.007 | Abha attack 0.863 / def 1.387 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Abha xG
63%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha is scheduled to kick off at 13:15 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 63% chance of winning, Abha a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Abha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Abha in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Abha (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 2.17 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (1.28) and Abha's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 2.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Abha's attack (0.86x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.54
15%
6.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.50
1.12
Abha xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
6.88
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
9%
10.78
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
1%
74.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.12 for Abha, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 6 outings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 5W 0D 1L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Abha's form line: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games, 0.17 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the form team by 2.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Abha.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That actually lags their 2.50 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Abha have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 0.83 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Abha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 5W 0D 1L in their last 6 games (2.50 PPG), while Abha have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 (0.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Abha away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Abha away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Abha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Abha in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 67% for Abha — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 100% for Abha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Abha in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Abha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 67% of Abha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 100% of Abha's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Abha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.