Al Orubah 0-2 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Orubah vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Orubah host Al-Ittihad FC at Al-Jouf University Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 7 November 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Orubah stand at 3W 1D 5L from 9 Pro League matches — 1.11 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.11 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Orubah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Orubah's home record at Al-Jouf University Stadium: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al-Jouf University Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.11 — Al Orubah are significantly better at Al-Jouf University Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.29 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.11), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Al Orubah in-play tendencies (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play tendencies (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Orubah 33% versus Al-Ittihad FC 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Orubah 67% | Al-Ittihad FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Orubah 0.90 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Orubah attack 0.690 / defence 1.103 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.019 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.278. Al Orubah's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Al Orubah games / 43 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Orubah 23% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Al Orubah 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.00. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Orubah 0% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Orubah vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Al-Jouf University Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Orubah 23% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Al Orubah 0.90 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Al Orubah attack 0.690 / def 1.103 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.019 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Al Orubah xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Al-Ittihad FC xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Orubah vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Orubah vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 7 November 2024 at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Orubah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Orubah 0 - 2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Orubah vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What competition is Al Orubah vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Orubah vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Orubah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Orubah a 23% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Orubah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Orubah and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Orubah vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al-Ittihad FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Orubah and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Orubah (all comps): 3W-1D-5L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.11 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al Orubah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Orubah's attack rating (0.69) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al Orubah's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
23%
4.26
27%
3.73
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Al Orubah xG
Total xG
2.33
1.44
Al-Ittihad FC xG
4.26
23%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
6%
17.91
20%
4.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.9 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Orubah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al Orubah and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Al Orubah and 1.44 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Orubah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Al Orubah have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 3W 1D 5L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Orubah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 8W 0D 1L from 9 games, 2.67 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 1.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Orubah.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Orubah have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Al Orubah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ittihad FC's season.
The Goals Picture
Al Orubah are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.44 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Orubah
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Orubah and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Orubah have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 8W 0D 1L in their last 9 (2.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Orubah at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al Orubah's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Orubah at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al Orubah or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Orubah have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Orubah and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Orubah
0
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Orubah have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Orubah and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2025, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-0 Al Orubah.
Who has won more matches between Al Orubah and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al Orubah 0% BTTS, Al-Ittihad FC 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al Orubah) and 67% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al Orubah keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC in 33%; Al Orubah have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Orubah home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Orubah play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al Orubah's recent matches and 67% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Orubah vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al Orubah's recent games and 67% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Orubah and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Orubah have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Orubah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Orubah 0-2 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 0.90 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.44 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Orubah fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.69 / defence 1.10 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 23% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 50%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 67%, Al-Ittihad FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Orubah's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Orubah (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.