Al Orubah 2-2 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Orubah vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Al-Fayha travel to Al-Jouf University Stadium to take on Al Orubah. The game is scheduled for Thursday 24 April 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Orubah stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Al Orubah at Al-Jouf University Stadium this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Orubah at 1.20 PPG versus Al-Fayha's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al Orubah have won 1, Al-Fayha 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Al Orubah winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al Orubah trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
Al-Fayha trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Orubah 29% | Al-Fayha 36%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Orubah 54% | Al-Fayha 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Orubah 1.07 xG and Al-Fayha 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Orubah attack 0.666 / defence 1.338 | Al-Fayha attack 0.815 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.349. Al Orubah's attack strength of 0.666 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Al Orubah games / 62 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Orubah 27% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Orubah 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fayha 2.17. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al Orubah 30% | Al-Fayha 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Orubah vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Al-Jouf University Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Orubah 27% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Al Orubah 1.07 / Al-Fayha 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Al Orubah attack 0.666 / def 1.338 | Al-Fayha attack 0.815 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Al Orubah xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Al-Fayha xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Orubah vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Orubah vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 24 April 2025 at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Orubah vs Al-Fayha?
Al Orubah 2 - 2 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Orubah vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What competition is Al Orubah vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Orubah vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Orubah vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Orubah a 27% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Orubah vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Orubah and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Orubah vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al-Fayha?
Record (1 meetings): Al Orubah 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al Orubah and Al-Fayha in?
Al Orubah (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Orubah's attack rating (0.67) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al Orubah's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
27%
3.71
27%
3.69
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Al Orubah xG
Total xG
2.54
1.47
Al-Fayha xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
6%
16.15
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Orubah vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al Orubah and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Al Orubah and 1.47 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Orubah vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Orubah come into this having played 28 games, going 8W 2D 18L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.04 PPG from 28 outings (6W 11D 11L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Orubah on 0.93 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Orubah's home form reads 5W 0D 9L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 1.00 points per game from 14 outings (3W 5D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Orubah are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.75 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Orubah have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Orubah
Current Season
Al-Fayha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Orubah and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Orubah have gone 8W 2D 18L in their last 28 games (0.93 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 6W 11D 11L in their last 28 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Orubah at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Orubah's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Orubah at home: 1.07 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al Orubah or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Orubah have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Orubah
1
Draws
0
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al-Fayha?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Orubah have won 1, Al-Fayha have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Orubah and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2025, when Al Orubah 2-2 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al Orubah and Al-Fayha?
Al Orubah have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al Orubah 21% BTTS, Al-Fayha 36%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al Orubah) and 50% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al Orubah have failed to score in 57% of games; Al-Fayha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Orubah home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Orubah play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Al Orubah's recent matches and 36% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Orubah vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al Orubah's recent games and 50% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Orubah and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Orubah have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Orubah and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Orubah and Al-Fayha finished level at 2-2 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 1.07 xG and Al-Fayha 1.47 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Orubah beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.67 / defence 1.34 against Al-Fayha attack 0.81 / defence 1.11, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 27% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 46%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 54%, Al-Fayha 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Orubah's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Orubah 0.93 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Orubah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.