Al Wehda Club 2-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Wehda Club face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Al Wehda Club versus Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Tuesday 22 April 2025 at 17:20 UTC.
Current Form
Al Wehda Club's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Al Wehda Club's home record at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Al-Ahli Jeddah arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al Wehda Club 0W, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Wehda Club — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 58% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.07 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.937 / defence 1.375 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.117 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.342. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 62 Al Wehda Club games / 62 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 19% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 70% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Apr 2025, 17:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 19% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.07 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.937 / def 1.375 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.117 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 17:20 on Tuesday 22 April 2025 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Wehda Club 2 - 3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 19% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 60% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (3 meetings): Al Wehda Club 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Wehda Club's attack at 0.94x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (1.12x) against Al Wehda Club's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 2.06.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
19%
5.35
22%
4.63
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
3.13
2.06
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
5.35
19%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
13%
7.85
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
2%
41.96
20%
4.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 2.06 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Wehda Club come into this having played 62 games, going 17W 11D 34L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Al-Ahli Jeddah sit at 1.94 PPG from 62 outings (36W 12D 14L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Al Wehda Club — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Wehda Club's home form reads 9W 7D 15L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken 1.71 points per game from 31 outings (16W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Current Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 17W 11D 34L in their last 62 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 36W 12D 14L in their last 62 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.10 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Al Wehda Club or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wehda Club have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wehda Club have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Wehda Club
1
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2025, when Al Wehda Club 2-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 71%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al Wehda Club and 58% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al Wehda Club's games and 52% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al Wehda Club's matches and 58% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al Wehda Club 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Wehda Club 2-3 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.07 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.06 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al Wehda Club beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 2.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.94 / defence 1.38 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.12 / defence 0.79, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 19% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 60%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.