Al Okhdood 2-5 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Okhdood face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Al Okhdood welcome Al-Ittihad FC to Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Okhdood have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al Okhdood haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al Okhdood's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ittihad FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ittihad FC's 2.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Okhdood register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Al-Ittihad FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters against Al Okhdood's 0 victories.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Al-Ittihad FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 47% versus Al-Ittihad FC 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 47% | Al-Ittihad FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.28 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.893 / defence 1.139 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.106 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.513. Data: 34 Al Okhdood games / 34 Al-Ittihad FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 26% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.92. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 26% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad FC 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Al Okhdood 1.28 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.893 / def 1.139 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.106 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.513 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Al-Ittihad FC xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Okhdood 2 - 5 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 26% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al Okhdood 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 3W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al Okhdood (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Okhdood's attack rating (0.89) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
26%
3.91
22%
4.48
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
3.18
1.91
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.91
26%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
15%
6.73
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
4%
26.35
15%
6.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.91 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Okhdood come into this having played 34 games, going 9W 7D 18L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. Al Okhdood haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 2.44 PPG from 34 outings (26W 5D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. Al-Ittihad FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.44 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Okhdood's home form reads 3W 4D 10L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 2.00 points per game from 17 outings (10W 4D 3L). That's a step down from their 2.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ittihad FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.32 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 71%.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Pre-Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 9W 7D 18L in their last 34 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 26W 5D 3L in their last 34 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.76 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ittihad FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Al-Ittihad FC won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Okhdood see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 53%, Al-Ittihad FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Al Okhdood) and 59% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al Okhdood's games and 71% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al Okhdood's matches and 59% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Okhdood 2-5 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.28 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.91 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.91 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.89 / defence 1.14 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.11 / defence 0.99, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 26% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 47%, Al-Ittihad FC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.