Al Okhdood 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Al Okhdood welcome Al-Hilal Saudi FC to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Okhdood haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al Okhdood's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Al Okhdood are significantly better at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Hilal Saudi FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing away from home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 1.90 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Okhdood register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al Okhdood, 2 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2024, ended 0–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Okhdood trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 47% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 53% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.31 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 1.029 / defence 1.068 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.308 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.215. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Al Okhdood games / 34 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 29% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 29% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Okhdood 1.31 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 1.029 / def 1.068 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.308 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Okhdood 0 - 3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 29% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al Okhdood 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Okhdood's attack rating (1.03) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
29%
3.43
25%
4.07
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
3.00
1.70
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
3.43
29%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
5%
18.76
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.70 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Al Okhdood have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 9W 6D 19L record — D-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. Al Okhdood haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 31W 3D 0L from 34 games, 2.82 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Okhdood.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Okhdood have posted 1.12 PPG from 17 outings (6W 1D 10L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 15W 2D 0L from 17 away games — 2.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.97 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Pre-Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 9W 6D 19L in their last 34 games (0.97 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 31W 3D 0L in their last 34 (2.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 1.12 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.76 PPG.
Have Al Okhdood or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Okhdood have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
0
Draws
6
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al Okhdood 0-6 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 53%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Al Okhdood and 71% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al Okhdood's games and 59% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al Okhdood's matches and 71% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Okhdood 0-3 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.31 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.70 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al Okhdood fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 1.03 / defence 1.07 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.31 / defence 0.87, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 29% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 53%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.82 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.