Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 Al Orubah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Orubah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Orubah make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City to face Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Friday 23 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ahli Jeddah haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.88 xG and Al Orubah 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.074 / defence 0.876 | Al Orubah attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.320. Data: 34 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 0 Al Orubah games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 57% | Draw 24% | Al Orubah 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Al Orubah 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Orubah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 23 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 57% | Draw 24% | Al Orubah 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.88 / Al Orubah 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.074 / def 0.876 | Al Orubah attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Al Orubah xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Orubah kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Orubah kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 August 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Orubah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2 - 0 Al Orubah.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Orubah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Orubah part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Orubah is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Orubah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 57% chance of winning, Al Orubah a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Orubah?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Orubah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Orubah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Orubah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Orubah in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.07) and Al Orubah's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Orubah's attack (0.85x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
57%
1.74
24%
4.16
18%
5.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.86
0.98
Al Orubah xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
5.42
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
3%
35.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Orubah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Orubah expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.98 for Al Orubah, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Orubah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Pre-Season
Al Orubah
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
0
Draws
0
Al Orubah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Orubah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2, Al Orubah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Orubah last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2025, when Al Orubah 0-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Orubah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Orubah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Orubah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Orubah 2-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.88 xG and Al Orubah 0.98 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Orubah landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.07 / defence 0.88 against Al Orubah attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 57% | Draw 24% | Al Orubah 18%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.