Al Kholood 2-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Kholood at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fateh make the trip to Ar-Rass Stadium to face Al Kholood in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Thursday 6 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Kholood's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Kholood have posted 5W 2D 3L at Ar-Rass Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fateh have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Al Kholood. A 0.50 PPG lead over Al-Fateh (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al Kholood 0W, Al-Fateh 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Kholood — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Kholood 61% and Al-Fateh 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 56% | Al-Fateh 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.91 xG and Al-Fateh 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.963 / defence 1.082 | Al-Fateh attack 0.908 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.332. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Al Kholood's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Al Kholood games / 57 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 52% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 26%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Fateh 3.85. Al Kholood hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Kholood as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Kholood if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 60% | Al-Fateh 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 52% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Al Kholood 1.91 / Al-Fateh 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.963 / def 1.082 | Al-Fateh attack 0.908 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Al-Fateh xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 6 March 2025 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh?
Al Kholood 2 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 52% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Fateh?
Record (1 meetings): Al Kholood 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Fateh in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Kholood's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.91x) against Al Kholood's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
52%
1.94
22%
4.49
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
3.22
1.31
Al-Fateh xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
15%
6.77
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
4%
25.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.31 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Kholood come into this having played 23 games, going 8W 4D 11L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 0.83 PPG from 23 outings (5W 4D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Al Kholood against 0.83 for Al-Fateh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Kholood's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 0.64 points per game from 11 outings (2W 1D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Kholood come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Kholood are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Kholood have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al-Fateh in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 8W 4D 11L in their last 23 games (1.22 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 5W 4D 14L in their last 23 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Kholood's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.55 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Kholood won 2-5 on 20 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Kholood have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Kholood
2
Draws
0
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Fateh?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al Kholood 0-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Fateh?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 54%, Al-Fateh 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al Kholood and 64% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Kholood have failed to score in 27% of games; Al-Fateh in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 46% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Kholood vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al Kholood's matches and 64% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Kholood edge out Al-Fateh 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Kholood beat Al-Fateh 2-1 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.91 xG and Al-Fateh 1.31 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against Al-Fateh attack 0.91 / defence 1.33, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 52% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 26%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 56%, Al-Fateh 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.22 PPG, Al-Fateh 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.