Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Thursday 19 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Al-Ittihad FC's favour (2.10 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Ittihad FC 1W, Al-Fayha 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2022, ended 2–0 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 46% versus Al-Fayha 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 51% | Al-Fayha 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.50 xG and Al-Fayha 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.056 / defence 0.732 | Al-Fayha attack 1.220 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.169. Al-Fayha have an above-average attack strength of 1.220 — the away xG of 1.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.732 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Al-Ittihad FC games / 43 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 47% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fayha 3.85. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Al-Fayha 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 47% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.50 / Al-Fayha 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.056 / def 0.732 | Al-Fayha attack 1.220 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Al-Fayha xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 19 January 2023 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Ittihad FC 3 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 47% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.06) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (1.22x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.70
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.54
1.04
Al-Fayha xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
6%
17.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.04 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 28W 9D 6L from 43 games, a 2.16 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 17L across 43 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 15W 3D 3L from 21 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 4W 6D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.86 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 28W 9D 6L in their last 43 games (2.16 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 12W 14D 17L in their last 43 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.29 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 8 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ittihad FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 19 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 0D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
0
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 7, Al-Fayha have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 8 September 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 29%, Al-Fayha 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 38% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 52% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 38% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fayha 3-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.50 xG and Al-Fayha 1.04 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fayha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.73 against Al-Fayha attack 1.22 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 47% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 26%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 51%, Al-Fayha 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.