Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kingdom Arena plays host to Al-Hilal Saudi FC versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 1 March 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 10W 0D 0L from 10 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kingdom Arena, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 3.00 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad FC's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Al-Ittihad FC in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 4–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 41% versus Al-Ittihad FC 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53% | Al-Ittihad FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.72 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.501 / defence 0.614 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.044 / defence 0.768. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.484. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.501 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ittihad FC's defence strength of 0.768 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.614 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 51 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ittihad FC 5.26. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Friday 1 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.72 / Al-Ittihad FC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.501 / def 0.614 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.044 / def 0.768 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.484 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Al-Ittihad FC xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 1 March 2024 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 54% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.50x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.04x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.61x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.75
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.67
0.95
Al-Ittihad FC xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
3%
28.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.95 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 36W 10D 5L from 51 games, a 2.31 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 33W 10D 8L across 51 games — 2.14 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.31 PPG for Al-Hilal Saudi FC against 2.14 for Al-Ittihad FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 18W 5D 2L from 25 games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 15W 7D 3L across 25 trips, a 2.08 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.98 scored and 0.78 conceded. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's scoring rate against Al-Ittihad FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games; Al-Ittihad FC in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 36W 10D 5L in their last 51 games (2.31 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 33W 10D 8L in their last 51 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.36 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 4-1 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al-Ittihad FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%, Al-Ittihad FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 60% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 44% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 60% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ittihad FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ittihad FC 3-1 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.72 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.50 / defence 0.61 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.77, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 19%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%, Al-Ittihad FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.31 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 2.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hilal Saudi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.