Al-Fayha 3-0 Al Najma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Najma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al Najma in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Thursday 5 February 2026 at 15:20 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fayha have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al Najma (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Najma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Najma's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Fayha's 0.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al Najma's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Fayha, 0 for Al Najma and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Al-Fayha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al Najma — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fayha 53% and Al Najma 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 53% | Al Najma 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.54 xG and Al Najma 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.870 / defence 0.961 | Al Najma attack 0.580 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.357. Al Najma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Al-Fayha games / 19 Al Najma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 55% | Draw 27% | Al Najma 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Al Najma 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fayha (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 40% | Al Najma 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Najma | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Feb 2026, 15:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 55% | Draw 27% | Al Najma 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Al-Fayha 1.54 / Al Najma 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.870 / def 0.961 | Al Najma attack 0.580 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Al Najma xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Najma kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Najma kicked off at 15:20 on Thursday 5 February 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Najma?
Al-Fayha 3 - 0 Al Najma.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Najma being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Najma part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Najma is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Najma?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 55% chance of winning, Al Najma a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Najma?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Najma will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Najma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Najma?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 0 | Al Najma 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Najma in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Al Najma (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.87x the league average against Al Najma's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Najma's attack (0.58x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 53/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
55%
1.81
27%
3.72
18%
5.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.29
0.76
Al Najma xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
5.63
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
4%
26.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 11.7 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Najma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Najma expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.76 for Al Najma, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Najma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 19 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 5W 5D 9L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Najma's form line: 0W 5D 14L from 19 games, 0.26 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Al Najma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Fayha are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Najma.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (3W 4D 2L).
On the road, Al Najma have gone 0W 2D 7L from 9 away games — 0.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Al Najma are on 0.95 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Najma in 68%.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Najma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Najma in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 5W 5D 9L in their last 19 games (1.05 PPG), while Al Najma have gone 0W 5D 14L in their last 19 (0.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Najma away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.44 PPG; Al Najma away: 0.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Fayha
0
Draws
0
Al Najma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Najma?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 2, Al Najma have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Najma last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al-Fayha 3-0 Al Najma.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Najma?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Al Najma see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 44%, Al Najma 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al-Fayha) and 56% (Al Najma).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Najma in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Najma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Najma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 56% of Al Najma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Najma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 56% of Al Najma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Al-Fayha run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Najma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Najma 3-0 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.54 xG and Al Najma 0.76 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against Al Najma attack 0.58 / defence 1.21, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 55% | Draw 27% | Al Najma 18%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 53%, Al Najma 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Najma's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fayha arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.26. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Al Najma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.