Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Al-Ettifaq arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Al-Fayha 3W, Al-Ettifaq 4W, 3D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Fayha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 54% versus Al-Ettifaq 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 54% | Al-Ettifaq 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.15 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.006 / defence 1.179 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.001 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.432. Data: 45 Al-Fayha games / 44 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 23% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Ettifaq 2.08. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 70% | Al-Ettifaq 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 23% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Fayha 1.15 / Al-Ettifaq 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 1.006 / def 1.179 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.001 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Al-Ettifaq xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Saturday 29 May 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 23% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Fayha 3W | Draws 3 | Al-Ettifaq 4W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 1.01x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (1.00x) against Al-Fayha's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
23%
4.26
29%
3.47
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.84
1.69
Al-Ettifaq xG
4.26
23%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
4%
23.10
15%
6.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.69 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fayha come into this having played 44 games, going 10W 13D 21L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.48 PPG from 44 outings (18W 11D 15L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Fayha's home form reads 7W 7D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.57 points per game from 21 outings (10W 3D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.48 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 10W 13D 21L in their last 44 games (0.98 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 18W 11D 15L in their last 44 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.33 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 11 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Fayha
3
Draws
4
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 3, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 62%, Al-Ettifaq 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al-Fayha) and 52% (Al-Ettifaq).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 48% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 52% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.