Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Thursday 15 October 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fayha stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 5W 2D 3L at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.20 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Al-Fayha's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Al-Fayha.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Al-Ahli Jeddah have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 54% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 54% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.14 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.998 / defence 0.959 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.015 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.400. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Al-Fayha games / 35 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 31% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 31% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Fayha 1.14 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.998 / def 0.959 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.015 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 15 October 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 31% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 5W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (1.00) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
31%
3.19
27%
3.72
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.51
1.36
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
8%
12.44
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.36 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 10W 8D 17L from 35 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 26W 6D 3L across 35 games — 2.40 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.31 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 6W 6D 5L from 17 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 12W 2D 3L across 17 trips, a 2.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.06 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 10W 8D 17L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 26W 6D 3L in their last 35 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.41 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 8 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2025, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 53%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Al-Fayha) and 35% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 35% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 35% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.