Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 8 April 2026, 16:55 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fayha stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 5W 3D 2L at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Al-Fayha's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Al-Fayha.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Ahli Jeddah have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 43% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 46% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.879 / defence 0.908 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.088 / defence 0.694. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.409. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.694 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 Al-Fayha games / 61 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.13. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 40% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 8 Apr 2026, 16:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Fayha 0.94 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.879 / def 0.908 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.088 / def 0.694 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 16:55 on Wednesday 8 April 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Fayha 1 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 25% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 5W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.88) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
25%
3.94
27%
3.67
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.33
1.39
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
6%
15.83
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.39 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 17W 18D 26L from 61 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 41W 9D 11L across 61 games — 2.16 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.03 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 10W 11D 9L from 30 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 19W 3D 8L across 30 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.02 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 17W 18D 26L in their last 61 games (1.13 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 41W 9D 11L in their last 61 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.37 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 19 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2025, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 9 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 40%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Al-Fayha and 37% for Al-Ahli Jeddah.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 53%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 37% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.39 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.09 / defence 0.69, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 46%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.