Al-Fateh 2-1 Damac – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Damac at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Damac encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Damac travel to Al Fateh Club Stadium to take on Al-Fateh in Pro League (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 22 January 2025 at 14:55 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Fateh — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Fateh at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Damac have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Damac's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Damac are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 90% of Al-Fateh's games and 60% of Damac's (from Al-Fateh's last 10 home games and Damac's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Fateh, 1 for Damac and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.2 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Feb 2024, ended Al-Fateh 1–1 Damac — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Damac in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 74% and Damac 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 65% | Damac 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.34 xG and Damac 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.870 / defence 1.170 | Damac attack 0.974 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.443. Data: built from Al-Fateh's last 49 games and Damac's last 49.

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 31% | Draw 24% | Damac 45%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.20 | Draw 4.15 | Damac 2.24. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.34 / 1.64) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Damac as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fateh's last 10 home games and Damac's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fateh 90% (last 10 home games) | Damac 60% (last 10 away games).

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