Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (80%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Faisaly FC face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Al-Faisaly FC versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Monday 14 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Faisaly FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Faisaly FC have posted 1W 2D 3L at — 0.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 9W 1D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 3 meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Al-Faisaly FC's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2026, ended 2–4 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Faisaly FC — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 67% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 58% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 0.83 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.781 / defence 1.220 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.691 / defence 0.703. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.703 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.691 — the away xG of 3.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 Al-Faisaly FC games / 45 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 6% | Draw 14% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 80%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 16.67 | Draw 7.14 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (80%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.87 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Faisaly FC 67% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: • Kick-off: Monday 14 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 6% | Draw 14% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 80% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 0.83 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.781 / def 1.220 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.691 / def 0.703 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
3.04
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
55%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Monday 14 December 2026.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 6% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 80% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Faisaly FC's attack at 0.78x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.69x) against Al-Faisaly FC's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 3.04.
These ratings are built from 12/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-3 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (9.7%), 1-3 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
6%
16.84
14%
7.24
80%
1.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 3
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
1 – 3
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
3.87
3.04
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
16.84
6%
Home win
7.24
14%
Draw
1.25
80%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
5%
20.97
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
0%
–
35%
2.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 6.3 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 4.5 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 |
| 2 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 3.04 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Al-Faisaly FC have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 2W 4D 6L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 11W 0D 1L from 12 games, 2.75 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Faisaly FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Faisaly FC have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 6W 0D 0L from 6 away games — 3.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.75 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 games (0.83 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 11W 0D 1L in their last 12 (2.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 0.83 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Al-Faisaly FC
0
Draws
3
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-2 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Faisaly FC 67%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Faisaly FC) and 67% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 67%; Al-Faisaly FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent matches and 33% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Faisaly FC's matches and 67% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.