Al-Faisaly FC 0-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hazm at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Al-Hazm travel to Al Majma'ah Sport City to take on Al-Faisaly FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 September 2026, 15:50 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Faisaly FC stand at 0W 1D 3L from 4 Pro League matches — 0.25 PPG. Last five: L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hazm have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hazm — 0.95 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.25). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Faisaly FC register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Al-Hazm in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, Al-Hazm 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Al-Faisaly FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al-Faisaly FC in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Faisaly FC 75% and Al-Hazm 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 50% | Al-Hazm 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.16 xG and Al-Hazm 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.692 / defence 1.204 | Al-Hazm attack 1.031 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.362. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Al-Faisaly FC games / 38 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 24% | Draw 28% | Al-Hazm 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Hazm 2.08. Al-Hazm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 75% | Al-Hazm 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sport City • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 15:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 24% | Draw 28% | Al-Hazm 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.16 / Al-Hazm 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.692 / def 1.204 | Al-Hazm attack 1.031 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Al-Hazm xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 15:50 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Al Majma'ah Sport City.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Faisaly FC 0 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sport City.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 24% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Faisaly FC's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Faisaly FC's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
24%
4.12
28%
3.61
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.85
1.69
Al-Hazm xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
4%
22.35
15%
6.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.69 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Faisaly FC's recent record stands at 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, a 0.25 PPG return, with L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 2L across 4 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hazm by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Faisaly FC heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Faisaly FC's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Al-Faisaly FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Al-Faisaly FC 0-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm?
Al-Faisaly FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Faisaly FC at 75%, Al-Hazm at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Faisaly FC) and 50% (Al-Hazm).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al-Faisaly FC's games and 75% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 50% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Faisaly FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm finished level at 0-0 at Al Majma'ah Sport City, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.16 xG and Al-Hazm 1.69 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Faisaly FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Hazm landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.20 against Al-Hazm attack 1.03 / defence 1.18, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 24% | Draw 28% | Al-Hazm 48%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 50%, Al-Hazm 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hazm arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Faisaly FC managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.