Al-Ettifaq 4-3 Al Taee – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taee encounter.

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Full Analysis

Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al-Ettifaq versus Al Taee in Pro League (matchday 7). Kick-off: Thursday 21 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Ettifaq's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Ettifaq's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Al Taee have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Al Taee's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Ettifaq's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Al Taee's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head sample leans to Al Taee, who have 4 wins from 4 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2023, ended Al-Ettifaq 0–2 Al Taee — a Al Taee win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Al Taee have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Al Taee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 42% versus Al Taee 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 44% | Al Taee 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.68 xG and Al Taee 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.081 / defence 0.828 | Al Taee attack 0.709 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.439. Al Taee's attack rating of 0.709 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 36 games and Al Taee's last 36.

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 57% | Draw 24% | Al Taee 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.75 | Draw 4.14 | Al Taee 5.32. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

Al Taee have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 0), but Al-Ettifaq carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Al-Ettifaq's last 10 home games and Al Taee's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Taee 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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