Al-Ettifaq 0-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC meet at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 October 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Al-Hilal Saudi FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ettifaq 60% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ettifaq 55% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.54 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.893 / defence 0.821 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.287 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.437. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Al-Ettifaq games / 38 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 38% | Draw 24% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 38% | Draw 24% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.54 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.893 / def 0.821 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.287 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 15:45 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 38% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.29x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
38%
2.60
24%
4.16
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.06
1.52
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
2.60
38%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
8%
11.86
8%
12.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.52 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 16W 9D 13L from 38 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 25W 8D 5L across 38 games — 2.18 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 6W 3D 9L from 18 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 10W 5D 3L across 18 trips, a 1.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.76 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 16W 9D 13L in their last 38 games (1.50 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 25W 8D 5L in their last 38 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-5 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 50%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Al-Ettifaq and 72% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 72% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 72% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ettifaq 0-5 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.54 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.52 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.52 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.89 / defence 0.82 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.29 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 38% | Draw 24% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Al-Hilal Saudi FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 55%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.